Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 8.534013 9.474738 10.502428 11.712941 13.105478 14.663953 16.549494
2025-12-07 6.978759 8.158431 9.535304 11.275849 13.438495 16.065219 19.540316
2025-12-14 5.974583 7.219605 8.736527 10.746415 13.378621 16.764702 21.544267
2025-12-21 5.362107 6.654116 8.284042 10.529061 13.602175 17.755371 23.961957
2025-12-28 5.330920 6.801980 8.727163 11.491438 15.462552 21.132673 30.176922
2026-01-04 5.054525 6.589485 8.656556 11.723805 16.304738 23.147405 34.676809
2026-01-11 4.656364 6.172216 8.259482 11.437975 16.334612 23.921463 37.298025
2026-01-18 4.481550 6.047526 8.256230 11.716115 17.232205 26.137143 42.674306
2026-01-25 4.194188 5.738453 7.957583 11.511861 17.334999 27.052100 45.883936
2026-02-01 3.952904 5.478298 7.708911 11.357195 17.491597 28.060439 49.418556
2026-02-08 3.728082 5.226946 7.453670 11.165878 17.558923 28.906456 52.766210
2026-02-15 3.513748 4.977753 7.183752 10.925509 17.511616 29.527433 55.748430
2026-02-22 3.349471 4.801847 7.026401 10.876146 17.827936 30.930950 60.833728
2026-03-01 3.124394 4.519422 6.682651 10.483793 17.483708 31.014719 63.001870
2026-03-08 2.900330 4.226363 6.303670 10.000396 16.920646 30.585886 63.879047
2026-03-15 2.751839 4.045257 6.096224 9.801917 16.877617 31.217089 67.476377
2026-03-22 2.818879 4.212665 6.474090 10.680066 19.023384 36.812271 85.266062
2026-03-29 2.758691 4.167875 6.489402 10.891823 19.854038 39.643811 96.459691
2026-04-05 2.622339 3.989517 6.263934 10.631329 19.673166 40.103606 100.858033
2026-04-12 2.579400 3.965430 6.305399 10.884817 20.612945 43.390921 114.982832
2026-04-19 2.470092 3.823114 6.129248 10.698682 20.571327 44.241441 121.479122
2026-04-26 2.374664 3.700264 5.981321 10.557681 20.616131 45.321769 129.132251
2026-05-03 2.280236 3.574991 5.822459 10.383205 20.567063 46.150091 136.182202